Hurricane Helene will serve as useful reminder in build-up to renewals: Citi

Hurricane Helene will serve as a useful reminder that rates and terms and conditions remain resilient in the run-up to 1 January, according to Citi’s James Shuck.

Estimates from Howden and Gallagher Re suggest industry losses of $3bn to $6bn based on Hurricane Helene’s current path, although any eastward shift could see private market losses top $10bn.

Shuck said that this will result in minimal losses for European reinsurers, which have been very careful in recent renewals and have moved up to more remote layers.

He continued that the event should be positive for the reinsurance sector as it will provide support through 1.1 2025 renewals while limiting financial exposure.

“If this proves to be the closing act of the 2024 hurricane season (we are still technically at risk for another three to four weeks or so) then this serves as a useful reminder whereby rates and T&Cs remain resilient and reinsurer loss experience subdued,” Shuck said.

Helene has become the fifth hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season, and the storm is quickly intensifying as it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Should Helene make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend or panhandle region as a major Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane, then history would suggest the insurance industry would suffer losses in the low single-digit billions.

However, Gallagher Re said that Helene’s very large wind radius would bring hurricane-force wind gusts and high storm surge to coastal areas in the Tampa Bay area, alongside tropical force storm winds as it moves north through Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee and southern Appalachia.