Atlantic storm lull ends as Francine forms

Tropical Storm Francine has been named as the sixth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with current forecasts suggesting a Category 1 Gulf Coast landfall later this week.

Francine is the first named storm in the Atlantic since Ernesto lost its tropical characteristics on 20 August.

The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center in a 10am CDT update said that Francine is expected to be just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

As of the time of the update, the storm’s maximum sustained winds remained near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern US Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

A tropical storm watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

This week (10 September) marks the traditional peak of the hurricane season.

Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach noted on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the last time that the Atlantic had no named storm formations from 13 August to 8 September inclusive was 1968.

This year’s hurricane season had been forecast to deliver a high level of activity, with all major forecasters predicting a busy season.

This reflected high ocean temperatures, which provide fuel for hurricane formation and intensification, as well as expectations for a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation or La Niña during the peak of the season, which reduces vertical wind shear.

However, atmospheric conditions have largely proved unfavourable for development since July. The early part of the season had seen Hurricane Beryl become the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin.